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It comes in voters’ own words, often registered onto the clipboards of canvassers, during a call-center phone conversation, in an online signup sequence or a stunt like “share your story.” As part of the Dreamcatcher project, Obama campaign officials have already set out to redesign the “notes” field on individual records in the database they use to track voters so that it sits visibly at the top of the screen—encouraging volunteers to gather and enter that information. And they’ve made the field large enough to include the “stories” submitted online. (One story was 60,000 text characters long.)
What can the campaign do with this blizzard of text snippets? Theoretically, Ghani could isolate keywords and context, then use statistical patterns gleaned from the examples of millions of voters to discern meaning. Say someone prattles on about “the auto bailout” to a volunteer canvasser: Is he lauding a signature domestic-policy achievement or is he a Tea Party sympathizer who should be excluded from Obama’s future outreach efforts? An algorithm able to interpret that voter’s actual words and sort them into categories might be able to make an educated guess.
A crazy ambitious data-mining project for the Obama reelection campaign, which they call “microlistening.” Can algorithms read into voters’ stories and find the puppet string that seems to draw the flock one way or the other?
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Their results, just published in Evolution and Human Behavior, were the same for all three of the elections they looked at—the 2004 and 2008 presidential contests, and the 2006 mid-terms (in which the Democrats made big gains in both houses of Congress). No matter which side won, searches for porn increased in states that had voted for the winners and decreased in those that had voted for the losers. The difference was not huge; it was a matter of one or two per cent. But it was consistent and statistically significant.
Pornography and politics: Rising to the occasion | The Economist
Statistically speaking, people who vote for winning sides in elections celebrate with porn. My political views are never officially represented by elected officials, therefore I never look at porn. I stand by this logical fallacy (I tried to look up which specific kind of fallacy, but Internet’s repository of fallacies never make it easy for me to do so.)
Posted on November 10, 2010 with 1 note
Source: economist.com
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The Facebook political team’s initial snapshot of 98 House races shows that 74% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests. In the Senate, our initial snapshot of 19 races shows that 81% of candidates with the most Facebook fans won their contests.
Facebook | Snapshot: The Day After Election Day
Facebook election data summary doesn’t drill down much at all into the statistics, but if you’d like to blather off some numbers at a cocktail party, here you go.
